World Cup's New Playbook: Prediction Markets Grab Spotlight, Sports Gambling Trails
Prediction markets like Kalshi are rapidly gaining traction, challenging traditional sportsbooks during major events like the World Cup.Summary
The 2026 World Cup has highlighted the rapid rise of prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which are increasingly competing with traditional sportsbooks. During the tournament, prediction market activity reached approximately 27% of legal US sports-betting volume, a significant increase from earlier in the year.
Unlike traditional gambling companies, prediction markets operate as exchanges where the platform does not profit from customer losses. This model, combined with regulatory approvals from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has allowed these platforms to expand their reach. Furthermore, prediction markets offer diverse products, such as bets on elections and weather, which traditional sportsbooks typically do not provide.
The growth of these platforms has pressured traditional giants like DraftKings and FanDuel to consider similar services. While state regulators have occasionally challenged these players in court, the ability of prediction markets to serve customers in states where sports gambling is illegal provides them with a distinct competitive advantage.
(Source：International Business Times)