SkyCity Advances in New Zealand Online Casino License Process with NPV Neutral Outlook
SkyCity advances in New Zealand's online casino licensing, with Forsyth Barr seeing the project as NPV neutral and strategically defensive.Summary
SkyCity Entertainment Group is among 11 entities confirmed to apply for online casino licenses in New Zealand, securing rights to two licenses at NZ$15 million each, totaling NZ$30 million. Forsyth Barr assesses the project as likely net present value neutral, contributing about 5 percent of group pre-overhead EBITDA once operational, with a modeled project NPV between -6 percent and +11 percent of the current share price. The forecast internal rate of return aligns with the cost of capital. The investment is seen as strategic, insulating SkyCity from migration to online channels rather than driving immediate financial growth. Analysts assume a pre-regulation market size of NZ$1.4 billion, 70 percent channelisation, and 7 percent growth initially, normalizing to 5 percent. SkyCity's projected market share is around 13 percent with two licenses or 7 percent with one.
(Source：Sccg Management)