Betting on nuclear war: what are prediction markets and could they come to the UK?
Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, are gaining popularity by allowing users to bet on the outcomes of events, raising questions about regulation and ethical concerns.Summary
Prediction markets are a new type of betting platform that allows users to wager on the outcomes of various events, ranging from political elections to even the possibility of nuclear war. Unlike traditional bookmakers, these markets pit customers against each other, functioning similarly to betting exchanges like Betfair, but with a more user-friendly interface and language borrowed from financial trading. While legal in some parts of the US through a loophole classifying them as financial instruments, they face scrutiny and legal challenges. The article explores the potential for these markets to expand to the UK, the risks of manipulation and insider trading, and the ethical concerns surrounding betting on sensitive events. Despite the novelty and publicity generated by bets on current affairs, the majority of revenue still comes from sports betting, and the long-term viability of prediction markets in a mature gambling market like the UK remains uncertain.
(Source：The Guardian)